“What makes a decision great is not that it has a great outcome. A great decision is the result of a good process”– Annie Duke
Don’t be afraid to take risks. Stay open to trying new things.
Just remember that every choice you make, even the small ones, have consequences. Don’t be careless with your choices, and never let anyone else make the big decisions for you.
When you’re facing a choice that needs real thought, use a checklist. It will help keep your own biases from tripping you up. We tend to think we know how the world works, but what we actually understand is pretty small.
The decision-making framework that I’ve learned from Annie Duke has helped me a lot. When you’re facing a tough decision where others have more experience than you, try her way of thinking:
- Think about the decision you need to make
- Think about what you know
- [💡 This is the step we tend to skip] Consider the outside view (i.e. the way that others would view the situation you’re in, what is true of the world – independent of your own perspective, and base rates)
- Combine that with your own experience and then decide
You should get to really know and adopt the idea of “base rates” from #3. It’s the best place to start when you’re trying to predict how something will turn out. Simply stated, a base rate is what’s usually true of a situation similar to the one you’re thinking about. Make it a habit to ask yourself: “Why would I think my situation is any different?” Unless you have a good reason, use that average as your starting point. Examples can include things like the odds of winning the lottery, the death rate of accidents caused by drunk driving, the average divorce rate, or how often first-time marathoners actually finish.
Don’t overthink the little stuff, but be mindful that what you do touches the people around you. Before you commit to a decision—especially with your health or your happiness—stop and think about how it might unfold. Consider the odds of different outcomes so you aren’t caught off guard.
Once you’ve made your move, you own it. If a decision lands you in a hard spot, don’t run from it. Own the situation, then do the work to drive the change.